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Experts and Decision Making: First Steps Towards a Unifying Theory of Decision Making in Novices, Intermediates and Experts

机译:专家与决策:新手,中间人和专家统一决策理论的第一步

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摘要

Expertise research shows quite ambiguous results on the abilities of experts in judgment and decision making (JDM) classic models cannot account for. This problem becomes even more accentuated if different levels of expertise are considered. We argue that parallel constraint satisfaction models (PCS) might be a useful base to understand the processes underlying expert JDM and the hitherto existing, differentiated results from expertise research. It is outlined how expertise might influence model parameters and mental representations according to PCS. It is discussed how this differential impact of expertise on model parameters relates to empirical results showing quite different courses in the development of expertise; allowing, for example, to predict under which conditions intermediates might outperform experts. Methodological requirements for testing the proposed unifying theory under complex real-world conditions are discussed.
机译:专门知识研究表明,专家在经典模型无法做出判断和决策(JDM)的能力上的结论尚不明确。如果考虑不同水平的专业知识,这个问题将变得更加突出。我们认为,并行约束满足模型(PCS)可能是了解专家JDM的流程以及专业知识研究迄今存在的差异化结果的有用基础。概述了专业知识如何根据PCS影响模型参数和心理表示。讨论了专业知识对模型参数的这种不同影响如何与经验结果相关,该结果显示了专业知识发展过程中的完全不同的过程;例如,可以预测中间体在哪种条件下可能胜过专家。讨论了在复杂的现实世界条件下测试提出的统一理论的方法要求。

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    Herbig, B.; Glöckner, A.;

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  • 年度 2009
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